Gentiana macrophylla response to climate change and vulnerability evaluation in China

Abstract Global climate change could pose an additional threat to the already vulnerable Gentiana macrophylla. To reduce this emerging climate-related threat, we applied ArcGIS and the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt) to analyse the consequences of climate change on the distribution of G. macrophylla and the vulnerability of this species in China. The modelling results indicate the following: (1) the suitable range of G. macrophylla in China is mainly located in the Loess Plateau hinterland, including the provinces of Shaanxi, Gansu, Shanxi, Ningxia, Hebei and Inner Mongolia, under the current climate conditions; (2) the unsuitable habitats for G. macrophylla in China would increase by 11.92% under the moderate greenhouse gas emissions/climate scenario (RCP4.5) by the 2050s, while significant losses of suitable habitat are predicted to occur; (3) the current suitable habitat mainly located in the Loess Plateau, Great Xingan Mountains, Changbai Mountains and Hengduan Mountains (with a total area of 135.09 × 104 km2) is predicted to be vulnerable. Climate change will further accelerate the speed of the fragmentation of the vast majority of G. macrophylla suitable habitat, threatening the survival and reproduction of this species in this region. Therefore, some proactive conservation measures should be undertaken to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change. Our findings can be used to provide background information related to the long-term conservation of G. macrophylla.