The Causal Mechanisms Behind Autonomy Success and Failure

This chapter links the conditions of the two empirical models from Chap. 3 with the assumed three-stage social mechanism of ethnic recognition as central prerequisite of autonomy consolidation to two multi-causal process models. The causal models are then tested against two representative cases by theory-testing process tracing. The successful case of South Tyrol shows that a high degree of autonomy and low inequalities have led to an acceptance of the post-conflict institutional reforms. The combination of democratic-inclusive institutions, minority-friendly parties, and international support enabled elite cooperation and, finally, a rapprochement between majority and ethnic minority. In the failed autonomy case of Chittagong Hill Tracts, however, the malus conditions identified keep the vicious circle of grievances, mobilization, and violence going.