Short-term Wind Speed Prediction Based on Grey System Theory Model in the Region of China

Short-term wind speed forecasting is useful for power system to regulate power dispatching plan, decrease reserve power needed and increase the reliability of system. The method of the short-term wind speed prediction is proposed in this paper. The data of wind speed in Dafeng, Jiangsu Province of China is predicted by the model combined with the grey system theory (GST). A grey system model consists of accumulating generation operation of original wind speed sequence data, data processing and wind speed forecasting. The hourly mean wind speed data at 85 meters above ground level of one year is generated by meteorological tower operated by the local bureau of meteorology. In this paper, the hourly average wind speed measured every an hour of 24 hours on Jan.1st, 2008 are the initial dataset for predicting. The result of wind speed is predicted by the grey system theory model with 0.14% of minimum relative percentage error (MRPE) and 7.22% of maximum mean absolute percentage error. The wind speed predicted values are given by the graphs and tables, which can be used easily for assessment of short-term wind energy in the different regions within China. Streszczenie. W artykule zaproponowano metode krotkookresowego prognozowania szybkości wiatru. Do prognozowania zastosowano teorie GST (Grey system theory). System sklada sie z panelu zbierania i przechowywania danych, przetwarzania danych i prognozowania. Zbierane są dane predkości wiatru 85 metrow nad powierzchnią ziemi. (Krotkookresowe prognozowania szybkości wiatru bazujące na modelu Grey System Theory)