Seasonal Climate Forecast For The Alcântara Launch Center - Brazil

This work analyzed the performance of three cumulus convection parameterization schemes (Kain-Fritsch, Emanuel and Grell/Emanuel) in forecasting the seasonal climate during the transition from rainy to dry period (June to July 2017) in Alcântara Launch Center (ALC) located in Maranhao State-Brazil. For this reason, the outputs from the global NCEP climate forecast system (CFSv2) were used as initial and boundary conditions in the Regional Climate Model (RegCM4.4). The results also focused on the vertical wind profile in the lower atmosphere in the ALC. The forecasts of this variable were validated with data from the wind profile registered by a micrometeorological tower in ALC. The forecasts had better skill in represent the intensity wind in June/July on average and the better convective scheme was Grell Convection Scheme (the Land)/Emanuel convection Scheme (the Ocean).