Medium and long term load forecasting method of "coal to electricity" based on optimal combination forecasting

Due to the volatility, randomness and seasonality of the load, there is no effective prediction model for the load development trend after the large-scale "coal to electricity" access to the rural distribution network, which affects the capacity planning of the rural distribution network. Aiming at this problem, this paper deeply analyzes the load characteristics and influencing factors of "coal to electricity" in rural areas, puts forward a screening method of single forecasting model based on grey correlation degree and effectiveness index, establishes the optimal medium and long-term combined forecasting model of "coal to electricity" load, and puts forward the flow chart of forecasting model. Finally, an example based on the historical data of a typical "coal to electricity" area is given to verify the results. The results show that the combined forecasting model can further improve the accuracy of the medium and long-term load forecasting results of "coal to electricity" through dynamic weighted optimization of the combined forecasting results.