Future Burden of Cancer Attributable to Current Modifiable Behaviours: A Pooled Study of Seven Australian Cohorts

Background: The Population Attributable Fraction (PAF) quantifies the fraction of cancer cases attributable to specific exposures. PAF estimates for the future burden of cancer preventable through modifications to current exposure distributions are lacking. Previous PAF studies have also not compared population subgroup differences. Aim: To apply a novel PAF method and i) assess the future burden of cancer in Australia preventable through modifications to current behaviors, and ii) compare the distribution of the preventable cancer burden between population subgroups. Methods: We harmonized and pooled data from seven Australian cohort studies (N=367058) and linked them to national registries to identify cancers and deaths. We estimated the strength of the associations between behaviors and cancer incidence and death using a proportional hazards model, adjusting for age, sex, study and other risk factors. Exposure prevalence was estimated from contemporary national health surveys. We then combined these es...