Future risk of the maize orange leafhopper, Cicadulina bipunctata , and maize wallaby ear symptom in temperate Japan

Since the 1980s, the maize orange leafhopper, Cicadulina bipunctata, has been gradually expanding its range in east Asia associated with global warming. This leafhopper induces maize wallaby ear symptom (MWES) on young maize plants and has become a threat to forage maize production in southern parts of temperate Japan since around 2000. In this study, using predictions of future temperature and precipitation calculated from Atmosphere–Ocean Coupled General Circulation Models, the future risk of C. bipunctata expansion and MWES occurrence in Japan (spatial resolution: 1 km2) was predicted. A nominal logistic regression analysis showed a significant contribution of cumulative low temperature during winter to the current distribution of C. bipunctata. The range of C. bipunctata was predicted to expand northward, particularly in Kyushu, Shikoku and the southern part of Honshu after the 2060s. Predicted intensification of MWES would reduce the efficacy of maize cultivars that are currently tolerant to MWES, in southern Kyushu in the 2020s, and in most parts of Kyushu, Shikoku and southwestern Honshu in the 2060s. These results suggest the need for measures to counter further expansion of C. bipunctata and improvement of current tolerant maize cultivars.