The cause and effect analysis of the dryness of Urmia Lake using a combination of fishbone diagram and analytic hierarchy process

During the past decade, Urmia Lake has faced a serious crisis due to various natural and anthropogenic factors. In this study, a combination of brainstorming, fishbone diagram, and the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was used to perform a cause and effect analysis of the dryness of Urmia Lake. Five factors, including human, environment, materials, equipment, and method, were identified as the major factors. Migration of local residents due to unemployment issues, destruction of lake bed and border, temperature rise, and excessive construction of hydroelectric dams had the highest eigenvalues (0.87, 0.81, 0.73, and 0.71, respectively). The excessive construction of hydroelectric dams was one of the most important sub-factors involved in the dryness of Urmia Lake (weight: 0.12). Based on our findings, the integrated approach can be used as an efficient tool for the exploration of different ideas and making reasonable decisions.