Drivers of Frailty from Adulthood into Old Age: Results from a 27-year Longitudinal Population-Based Study in Sweden.

BACKGROUND: Frailty is a strong predictor of adverse outcomes. However, longitudinal drivers of frailty are not well understood. This study aimed at investigating the longitudinal trajectories of a frailty index (FI) from adulthood to late life and identifying the factors associated with the level and rate of change in FI. METHODS: An age-based latent growth curve analysis was performed in the Swedish Adoption/Twin Study of Aging (N=1,842; aged 29-102 years) using data from up to 15 measurement waves across 27 years. A 42-item FI was used to measure frailty at each wave. RESULTS: A bilinear, two-slope model with a turning point at age 65 best described the age-related change in FI, showing that the increase in frailty was more than twice as fast after age 65. Underweight, obesity, female sex, overweight, being separated from one's co-twin during childhood, smoking, poor social support and low physical activity were associated with a higher FI at age 65, with underweight having the largest effect size. When tested as time-varying covariates, underweight and higher social support were associated with a steeper increase in FI before age 65, whereas overweight and obesity were associated with less steep increase in FI after age 65. CONCLUSIONS: Factors associated with the level and rate of change in frailty are largely actionable and could provide targets for intervention. As deviations from normal weight showed the strongest associations with frailty, future public health programs could benefit from monitoring of individuals with abnormal BMI, especially those who are underweight.