Country-level assessment of long-term global bioenergy potential

Most long-term global energy scenarios rely on biomass for a variety of possible uses, but there is unlikely to be enough to replace the majority of fossil fuel use in all sectors. Improving the understanding of the sustainable and realistic potential for biomass is crucial. We present a comprehensive, country-based, bottom-up assessment of the land-based global biofuel (bioethanol and biodiesel) potential, taking into account a range of scenarios with varying yield gradients, land-use change and technology development, covering energy from both lignocellulosic and food crops as well as residues from agriculture and forestry. We have also gone beyond many other studies by analysing the potential for food crop based biofuels as well as lignocellulosic-sourced biofuels. We find a global biofuel supply potential increasing from 15e70 EJ final transport fuel energy (30e140 EJ primary energy) currently to 40e190 EJ (130e400 EJ) in 2070, depending on the development of land-use, productivity and technology mix. Over 3/4 of this potential comes from energy crops: up to 70% could come from food crops and at least 10% from lignocellulosic crops. The remaining quarter would be from agricultural and forestry residues. For comparison, current (2010) total global energy use (fuel, heat and electricity) stands at 365 EJ final energy (530 EJ primary energy). Depending on demand developments, countries such as Brazil or Russia could become net bioenergy exporters in the second half of the century, while others, such as India or Nigeria, may become net importers. © 2015 Published by Elsevier Ltd.