FHWA Travel Analysis Framework: Development of VMT Forecasting Models for Use by the Federal Highway Administration

This document details the process that the Volpe National Transportation Systems Center (Volpe) used to develop travel forecasting models for the Federal Highway Administration (FHWA). The purpose of these models is to allow FHWA to forecast future changes in passenger and freight vehicle use (as measured by the number of vehicle-miles traveled, or VMT) that is likely to occur in response to predicted demographic trends and changes in future economic conditions. These models also provide estimates of the volumes of gasoline, diesel, and other fuels consumed by motor vehicles, which are derived from its projections of future vehicle travel and fuel economy. Forecasts of VMT developed using this model will inform and support the development of future Federal transportation planning and policy.