The Second Wave of COVID-19 in Italy: What’s Going On?

Background: a second wave (W2) of COVID-19 is affecting Italy. Objective: to analyze the ratio between deaths and positive cases in two different 36-day periods of W2. Methods: data were retrieved by the Official Bulletin of the Italian Protezione Civile. The analysis was based on mobile averages. Results: The ratios deaths/positive cases in the first 35-day period form October 9th and November 13th were of 2.45 ± 0.482 and in the second 36-day period from November 14th and December 19th was 2.37 ± 0.416. There is no statistical difference between the periods (p> 0.05). The differences are significant (p<0.01) in terms of trends, since in the first period the curve is flat, while in the second is growing. Conclusions: the reason of the different trends are several, such as the starting of the colder season, the delay in providing with the common flu vaccination. the confusion about the initiative of lockdown, and the poor care for the older people.