A hotspot analysis of critical hydrocarbons infrastructure in Colombia: ELN (Ejército de Liberación Nacional) and FARC (Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia) attacks on Colombian pipelines

Abstract The oil and gas sectors in Colombia are significant components of the Colombian economy, attracting approximately 20% of the FDI, and providing almost a fourth of total government revenues. These sectors of critical infrastructure have suffered systematic targeting from guerrilla internal conflict. For example, the hydrocarbons infrastructure was attacked 829 times between 2007 and 2015. With data from the Ministry of Defense and data from CINEP (Centro de Investigacion y Educacion Popular), we compare spatial patterns of pipeline attacks with violent activity of the two main leftist guerrilla groups, the ELN and the FARC. We use local indicators for spatial association (LISA) to determine overlapping among high activity and presence (hot spots) of guerrilla presence and pipeline attacks. We identify vulnerable areas of the pipeline infrastructure that the government should prioritize for protection, and examine if areas of attacks are related to the general presence and activity of guerrilla groups or if there is evidence of strategic targeting of the pipelines.