Changes in Chinese Natural Gas Demand and Their Potential Impacts on the Relationship Between China and the GCC Countries

Fudan: Natural gas demand of China will keep growing, but great uncertainty remains which may hinder the development of natural gas market. This chapter first established the sector-based approach to forecast the medium-term (2030) natural gas demand of China in three different developed speed scenarios. The results suggest that natural gas demand by power generation and industry sector are the largest source of uncertainty. Then conducted a comprehensive analysis on the demand-and-supply relationship of Chinese natural gas, which show great transformation will happen and raise challenges for the bilateral relationship between China and the GCC countries. As last, policy suggestions aiming to establish a stable and large-scale collaboration in natural gas market between GCC regions and China in the future are given out.