Alternative scenarios for the future of the Canadian boreal zone1

In response to global climate change, Canada is transitioning towards a low-carbon economy and the need for policy approaches that are effective, equitable, coordinated, and both administratively and politically feasible is high. One point is clear, the transition is intimately tied to the vast supply of ecosystem services in the boreal zone of Canada. This paper describes four contrasting futures for the boreal zone using scenario analysis, which is a transdisciplinary, participatory approach that considers alternative futures and policy implications under conditions of high uncertainty and complexity. The two critical forces shaping the four scenarios are the global economy’s energy and society’s capacity to adapt. The six drivers of change are atmospheric change, the demand for provisioning ecosystem services, the demand for non-provisioning ecosystem services, demographics and social values, governance and geopolitics, and industrial innovation and infrastructure. The four scenarios include: 1) the Gr...