Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis of OIIP Estimation Based on Geological Model

Due to the limitations of understanding of geological parameters of oil and gas reservoirs, there is an uncertainty in the results of OOIP calculation. Study the oilfield OOIP distribution probability distribution and the sensitivity of relevant key parameters are quite meaningful to make development plan. In this paper, in the process of volumetric calculation based on the oilfield geological model, according to the actual geological conditions of the oilfield, the geological parameters with uncertainty are selected as variables for the uncertainty analysis, the variable types and distribution parameters are reasonably defined. The Monte Carlo sampling method with inplantation of Latin Hypercube principle principle obtains the probability distribution of the geological reserves of the oil field, and evaluates the sensitivity of the various variables to the OOIP. The results provide the recommended P50 geological reserves. This paper shows that analyzing the key influencing parameters of OOIP calculation and setting the variables reasonably, the Monte Carlo-Latin Hypercube sampling method can provide a representative probability distribution with limited sampling count, and can effectively evaluate OOIP uncertainty. Thus, give the recommended OOIP and relivant geological models for numerical simulation research.