Aplicação de uma ferramenta objetiva para previsão de tempo severo em ambiente operacional

This study discusses the feasibility of employing an objective forecasting tool in an operational environment, with main purpose of aiding the human forecaster in the task of thunderstorm prediction. The method is based on the combination of widely documented convective parameters, such as K, Total Totals and SWEAT instability indices. Charts were produced to help the identification of areas with high potential to generate storms, defined by specific criteria for severe weather. An alternative for detecting areas favorable to hail occurrence was also presented for identifying those events originated by strong dynamical forcing. The thresholds used were important to characterize the precipitation behavior, allowing them to discriminate different convective modes. The results showed that the objective tool can be an efficient alternative for thunderstorm prediction in South America because it allows the forecaster to overcome some of the limitations found in numerical models, particularly with respect to precipitation forecasting.