A modified reliability model for lithium-ion battery packs based on the stochastic capacity degradation and dynamic response impedance

Abstract The reliability assessment of battery packs is an important topic in the reliability design of electric vehicles. To improve the accuracy of the reliability analysis, a modified reliability model for lithium-ion battery packs is developed that couples multiphysics models, degradation models, and a multistate system reliability model. For the degradation models, a stochastic capacity degradation model and a dynamic response impedance (DRI) model are established based on experimental data: a) the stochastic capacity degradation characteristics of cells are investigated, and b) the dynamic response characteristics of the impedance with degradation and changing temperature are studied. It is found that Weibull distribution is slightly more appropriate than normal distribution when the temperature is 25 °C, then reversed with increasing temperature. The algorithm for distribution selection is proposed to describing this concept drift phenomenon. Then, the influence of DRI on the thermal performance is analyzed. Finally, reliability assessment of battery pack and several calculation examples are implemented for comparative analysis. The results show that the fading rate of cells in battery pack are accelerated when DRI is incorporated. Thus, multiphysics-based system reliability model with considering the stochastic capacity degradation and DRI enables more scientific and accurate reliability evaluation of battery pack.