동북아시아 삼국간 무역의 보완관계 분석 (Complementarity in Northeast Asian Trade)

Korean Abstract: 국제무역의 품목별 구조에서 나타난 한국, 중국, 일본 등 동북아시아 삼국간 경쟁 및 보완적 관계를 살펴보고, 특히 무역상응지수(trade conformity index)를 이용하여 한국과의 수출입을 중심으로 동북아시아 국가들의 무역에 있어서 향후 잠재적으로 그 규모의 증가가 클 것으로 기대되는 품목들을 찾아보고자 하였다. 잠재적인 의미에서 한국의 수입은 중국으로부터 보다는 일본으로부터 상대적으로 더욱 크게 증가할 것으로 예상된다. 또한, 한국의 수출은 일본 및 중국에 대하여 모두 상대적으로 크게 증가할 것이나 중국보다는 일본에 대한 수출이 잠재적으로 조금 더 증가할 것으로 기대된다. 예를 들면, 한국의 일본에 대한 수출이 잠재적으로 증가할 것으로 기대되는 품목들은 의류, 가방 및 기타 섬유제품; 수산물 및 육류; 사무용기기 부분품; 제조업 잡제품; 알루미늄 등 화학 잡제품; 시계 및 벽시계 등으로 나타났다. 국가간 무역의 품목분류를 세분하고 각국의 전체무역뿐 아니라 양국간 무역을 함께 살펴봄에 따라 국가간 보완적인 관계를 더욱 잘 찾아볼 수 있었다. English Abstract: This paper reviews the degree of competition and complementarity among three Northeast Asian countries China, Japan and Korea. An attempt is made to identify sectors or commodities that are expected to potentially increase trade between Korea and China or Japan. For the analysis, bilateral, as well as total trade at a somewhat disaggregated commodity level, are considered. We try to analyze the extent of the structural similarities (between one's exports and the other's imports and vice versa, therefore, comlementarity) in international trade between the Northeast Asian countries with the index of trade conformity (ITC). The ITC analysis yielded the following implications. Korea's imports from Japan are much more likely to increase than those from China, in a potential sense. Potentially speaking, Korea's exports to the two other countries will increase relatively, somewhat more for Korea's exports to Japan than to China. Looking at it another way, in terms of potential, Korea's exports to China are much more likely to increase than are China's exports to Korea. The overall aggregate trade structures (between one's exports and the other's imports and vice versa) of Japan and Korea are quite similar, therefore complementary, and Japan's exports to Korea are potentially a little more likely to increase than are Korea's exports to Japan. We also try to identify some commodities which are expected to increase bilateral trade between Korea and China or Japan. For example, Korea's exports to Japan have the potential to increase in apparel, bags, and textile articles; fish and meat; arts for office machines; miscellaneous manufactured goods; aluminum, copper; miscellaneous chemical products; and watches and clocks. It was possible to identify even more complementary relationships between the countries as the product classification was disaggregated further.