Assessing Energy Storage Requirements Based on Accepted Risks

This paper presents a framework to derive the storage capacity an electricity system requires in order to satisfy a chosen risk appetite. The framework takes as inputs event categories defined in terms of peak power-not-supplied and accepted risk of failure to deliver, and returns as an output the total capacity of storage that is needed. For increased model accuracy, our methodology incorporates multiple nodes with constrained transfer capacities, and we provide a foresight-free dispatch policy for application to this setting. Finally, we demonstrate the chance-constrained capacity determination via application to a model of the British network.