Seismic Safety Margins Research Program: Phase II program plan (FY 83-FY 84)

The Seismic Safety Margins Research Program (SSMRP) is an NRC-funded, multiyear program conducted by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL). Its goal is to develop a complete, fully coupled analysis procedure (including methods and computer codes) for estimating the risk of an earthquake-caused radioactive release from a commercial nuclear power plant. The analysis procedure is based upon a state-of-the-art evaluation of the current seismic analysis and design process and explicitly includes the uncertainties inherent in such a process. The results will be used to improve seismic licensing requirements for nuclear power plants. As currently planned, the SSMRP will be completed in September, 1984. This document presents the program plan for work to be done during the remainder of the program. In Phase I of the SSMRP, the necessary tools (both computer codes and data bases) for performing a detailed seismic risk analysis were identified and developed. Demonstration calculations were performed on the Zion Nuclear Power Plant. In the remainder of the program (Phase II) work will be concentrated on developing a simplified SSMRP methodology for routine probabilistic risk assessments, quantitative validation of the tools developed and application of the simplified methodology to a Boiling Water Reactor. (The Zion plant is amore » pressurized water reactor.) In addition, considerable effort will be devoted to making the codes and data bases easily accessible to the public.« less