Towards a stage model of regional industrial path transformation

Arguably, the debate on innovation-based structural change in Evolutionary Economic Geography (EEG) reflects a strong dichotomy between on-going continuation and radical change of industrial path development. In this paper we argue that radical innovation activities can occur within existing paths without necessarily leading to their dissolution. Departing from a systemic perspective of path development, we propose a stage model of path transformation. We outline how radical change becomes initiated, reinforced and finally consolidated in established industrial paths. Particular attention is devoted to the ways in which multiple actors – influenced by ‘the past’ and driven by visions and expectations (that is, ‘the future’) – exert agency to stimulate asset modification processes that are assumed to underpin path transformation and the reconfiguration of the wider support structures. The framework is applied to the analysis of the automotive industry in West Sweden, which is currently transforming towards the development of self-driving cars.