Estimation of the population size of Canadian commercial poultry farms by log-linear capture-recapture analysis

The objective of this study was to estimate the population size of Canadian poultry farms in 3 subpopulations (British Columbia, Ontario, and Other) by poultry category. We used data for 2008 to 2011 from the Canadian Notifiable Avian Influenza (NAI) Surveillance System (CanNAISS). Log-linear capture-recapture models were applied to estimate the number of commercial chicken and turkey farms. The estimated size of farm populations was validated by comparing sizes to data provided by the Canadian poultry industry in 2007, which were assumed to be complete and exhaustive. Our results showed that the log-linear modelling approach was an appropriate tool to estimate the population size of Canadian commercial chicken and turkey farms. The 2007 farm population size for each poultry category was included in the 95% confidence intervals of the farm population size estimates. Log-linear capture-recapture modelling might be useful for estimating the number of farms using surveillance data when no comprehensive registry exists.