Crisis Management: Psychological and Sociological Factors in Decision Making

Abstract : The report summarizes the two phases of a study designed to assess the possible contributions of psychological and sociological literature to improving the management of foreign policy crises. In Phase I, after a systematic search of the literature, the research findings of over 100 studies were synthesized into 81 propositions that relate to the influence of individual and group-level factors on the effective performance of decision-making tasks in crisis management. In Phase II the research literature was evaluated in order to assess the state of the art. Some fifteen areas were identified in which we could conclude that statements of relationships were well supported and could serve as the basis for policy implementation. The most important of these focused on the negative effects of time pressure, the breakdown of analytical abilities in crisis, the effectiveness of established vs. ad hoc groups, and the difficulties of information processing.