Validation of a Nomogram in the Prediction of Local Recurrence Risks after Conserving Surgery for Asian Women with Ductal Carcinoma in Situ of the Breast

Abstract Aims At our centre, ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) was commonly treated with breast-conservation therapy (BCT). Local recurrence after BCT is a major concern. The aims of our study were to review the outcomes of DCIS treatment in our patients and to evaluate a nomogram from Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Centre (MSKCC) for predicting ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) in our Asian population. Materials and methods Chart reviews of 716 patients with pure DCIS treated from 1992 to 2011 were carried out. Univariable Cox regression analyses were used to evaluate the effects of the 10 prognostic factors of the MSKCC nomogram on IBTR. We constructed a separate National Cancer Centre Singapore (NCCS) nomogram based on multivariable Cox regression via reduced model selection by applying the stopping rule of Akaike's information criterion to predict IBTR-free survival. The abilities of the NCCS nomogram and the MSKCC nomogram to predict IBTR of individual patients were evaluated with bootstrapping of 200 sets of resamples and the NCCS dataset, respectively. Harrell's c-index was calculated for each nomogram to evaluate the concordance between predicted and observed responses of individual subjects. Results Study patients were followed up for a median of 70 months. Over 95% of patients received adjuvant radiotherapy. The 5 and 10 year actuarial IBTR-free survival rates for the cohort were 95.5 and 92.6%, respectively. In the multivariate analysis, independent prognostic factors for IBTR included use of adjuvant endocrine therapy, presence of comedonecrosis and younger age at diagnosis. These factors formed the basis of the NCCS nomogram, which had a similar c-index (NCCS: 0.696; MSKCC: 0.673) compared with the MSKCC nomogram. Conclusion The MSKCC nomogram was validated in an Asian population. A simpler NCCS nomogram using a different combination of fewer prognostic factors may be sufficient for the prediction of IBTR in Asians, but requires external validation to compare for relative performance.