Preliminary exploration of the application of epidemic dynamics on the prediction and prevention of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD)

OBJECTIVE The study aimed to develop an epidemic dynamics model for the transmission and prevention of hand-foot-and-mouth disease(HFMD). METHODS A SIR model for susceptible, infected, and recovered HFMD patients was created based on research results and actual incidences of HFMD in Sichuan Province using mathematical and epidemic dynamical methods. Time-fitted curves determined by the relevant parameters were adopted to simulate the epidemic process,and the effectiveness of the model with and without an intervention was evaluated. RESULTS Comparison of the results of data fitting to the model for HFMD cases occurred in Sichuan Province in 2010 with the actual incidence showed that the model fitted well to the maximum number of infected HFMD patients and that the simulated trend of epidemic process was identical to that of the actual situation. Implementation of interventive measures was demonstrated to effectively delay the onset of HFMD epidemic peaks and reduce the number of incidence during peak seasons. CONCLUSION The model created in this study is suitable for simulating the spread of HFMD in Sichuan Province and may be used to evaluate the effectiveness of relevant interventive and preventive measures.