A Solution-Focused Comparative Risk Assessment of Conventional and Emerging Synthetic Biology Technologies for Fuel Ethanol

Global energy demand is increasing due to global development initiatives and steady population growth. The US Energy Information Administration’s International Energy Outlook 2017 (IEO 2017) projects that the world energy consumption will raise from approximately 575 quadrillion Btu in 2015 to 736 Btu by 2040—an increase of 28% (IEO 2017). Fossil fuels, such as petroleum and natural gas, serve as the leading energy sources for various sectors, such as transportation. However, the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts that biofuel production will increase by 15% over the next 5 years to reach approximately 42.6 billion gallons (IEA 2018). Various types of renewable fuels or fossil fuel additives are being researched and developed as complements or supplements to fossil fuels. Ethanol, or ethyl alcohol, is one such additive, particularly for motor fuel in the United States and Brazil. Fuel ethanol has been proprosed to offset dependence on petroleum, thereby reducing greenhouse gas emissions by up to 43% relative to gasoline (Flugge et al. 2017). Additionally, as advanced ethanol production processes are less sensitive to the vagaries of geography, as will be discussed later in this chapter, countries can produce it domestically rather than having to rely on the geopolitics associated with the world petroleum market.