Multiscale dynamics of COVID-19 and model-based recommendations for 105 countries

We analyse the dynamics of COVID-19 using computational modelling at multiple scales. For large scale analysis, we propose a 2-scale lattice extension of the classical SIR-type compartmental model with spatial interactions called the Lattice-SIRQL model. Computational simulations show that global quantifiers are not completely representative of the actual dynamics of the disease especially when mitigation measures such as quarantine and lockdown are applied. Furthermore, using real data of confirmed COVID-19 cases, we calibrate the Lattice-SIRQL model for 105 countries. The calibrated model is used to make country specific recommendations for lockdown relaxation and lockdown continuation. Finally, using an agent-based model we analyse the influence of cluster level relaxation rate and lockdown duration on the spread of the disease.