Modeling the state of marine ecosystems: A case study of the Okhotsk Sea

Abstract We provide an efficient tool for the processing of a large volume of data (big data) from a marine ecosystem and predicting its status, including its complex and nonlinear biological structure (biocomplexity) and its ability to remain alive or continue to exist (survivability). The Geoecological Information-Modeling System developed earlier by the authors of this paper is used for the first time as a basis for the development of the Sea Ecosystem Model that parameterizes the energy exchange between major trophic components of the sea with spatial resolution 1/6° × 1/6° taking into account natural and anthropogenic factors. In particular, the dependence of energy exchange processes on environmental factors is modeled with a minimum level of uncertainty. The biological components are modeled using traditional trophic balance equations, whose coefficients are determined from observational data. The simulation results for the Okhotsk Sea show the critical ecosystem states that prevail when the biocomplexity and survivability of this ecosystem reach dangerous levels. The prediction of the ecosystem status is carried out to 2100 with an accuracy of better than 79.9%. For this purpose, the complex model proposed recently by the same authors, entitled “nature-society system model”, was used. Among the main results that have emerged is that the biocomplexity and survivability characteristics of this marine ecosystem will be stable over the next 100 years, regardless of the expected climate change.