Prognostic predictors for survival in patients with COPD using cardiopulmonary exercise testing

We studied the relationship between physiologic parameters in cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET) and prognosis in terms of survival time in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) in order to accurately assess the severity of the disease. From a group of 195 patients with COPD who had consecutively undergone CPET between July 1989 and October 1997, we enrolled 120 subjects (mean age 67#6 years, 104 males) with exertional dyspnoea into a cohort protocol. Of these subjects, 34 (28#3%) died during the 3-5-year follow-up period after CPET. By univariate analysis, the following factors were significantly associated with survival time: age, body mass index, %FVC, %FEV 1 , FEV 1 %, Paco 2 at rest, severity of exercise-induced hypoxemia evaluated by ΔPao 2 /ΔVo 2 (Pao 2 -slope), oxygen uptake, ventilation, tidal volume, Paco 2 and oxygen pulse at maximum exercise, as well as prescribing long-term oxygen therapy. By multivariate analysis, age and the Pao 2 -slope showed significance as independent prognostic factors, and the Pao 2 -slope was most closely associated with the survival time. These results reveal that CPET is a useful technique to accurately assess the relationship between the functional impairments and the prognosis of patients with COPD.