Accurate Quantification of Seasonal Rainfall and Associated Climate–Wildfire Relationships

Abstract Wildfires are often governed by rapid changes in seasonal rainfall. Therefore, measuring seasonal rainfall on a temporally finescale should facilitate the prediction of wildfire regimes. To explore this hypothesis, daily rainfall data over a 58-yr period (1950–2007) in south-central Florida were transformed into cumulative rainfall anomalies (CRAs). This transformation allowed precise estimation of onset dates and durations of the dry and wet seasons, as well as a number of other variables characterizing seasonal rainfall. These variables were compared with parameters that describe ENSO and a wildfire regime in the region (at the Avon Park Air Force Range). Onset dates and durations were found to be highly variable among years, with standard deviations ranging from 27 to 41 days. Rainfall during the two seasons was distinctive, with the dry season having half as much as the wet season despite being nearly 2 times as long. The precise quantification of seasonal rainfall led to strong statistical m...