Mortality Risk Factors and Validation of Severity Scoring Systems in Critically Ill Patients with Acute Renal Failure

Background. Risk stratification and prediction of outcome in acute renal failure patients in the intensive care unit are important determinants for improvement of patient care and design of clinical trials. Methods. In order to identify mortality risks factors and validate general and specific predictive models for acute renal failure (ARF) patients in the intensive care unit (ICU), 324 patients were prospectively evaluated. Multivariate analysis by logistic regression was utilized for identification of mortality risk factors. Discrimination and calibration were used to evaluate the performance of the following models at referral to nephrologist and at initiation of renal replacement therapy: APACHE II, SAPS II, LODS, and ATN-ISI. Organ failure was assessed by SOFA and OSF. Results. The hospital mortality rate was 85%. The identified mortality risk factors were: age ≥ 65 yr, BUN ≥ 70 mg/dL, ARF of septic origin, and previous hypertension. Serum creatinine ≥ 3.5 mg/dL, systolic blood pressure ≥ 100 mm Hg, ...