Identification of naïve HCV-1 patients with chronic hepatitis who may benefit from dual therapy with peg-interferon and ribavirin

Background & Aims The pool of HCV genotype 1 patients likely to be cured by peg-interferon and ribavirin remains to be quantified. Methods In 1045 patients treated with peg-interferon and ribavirin, two therapeutic strategies were confronted: the first one evaluated only baseline variables associated with sustained virological response (SVR), and the second one included the rapid virologic response (RVR) in addition to baseline predictors. An 80% SVR rate was the threshold to retain a strategy as clinically relevant. Results Overall, 414 patients (39.6%) attained SVR. In the first strategy, the hierarchy of features independently associated with SVR was IL28B CC genotype (OR 5.082; CI 3.637–7.101), low ( IL28B CC genotype (OR 3.306; CI 2.301–4.751), low viremia (OR 2.175; CI 1.542–3.070), and F0–F2 fibrosis (OR 1.506; CI 1.012–2.242). Combining the favorable baseline variables, the rates of SVR ranged from 42.4% to 83.3%, but only 66 patients (6.3%, overall) with all predictors could be anticipated to reach the >80% SVR threshold. Only 26.6% of no-RVR patients attained SVR. Among the 255 RVR patients, the likelihood of SVR was 61.8% in those with unfavorable predictors, 80% in the presence of a single predictor, and 100% when both predictors were present. By using this model, 200 patients (19.1%) were predicted to have an 80% chance of being cured with dual therapy. Conclusions A consistent subset of naive HCV-1 patients, identified by some baseline characteristics and RVR, may benefit from dual treatment with peg-interferon and ribavirin.