End-Use Electricity Demand Profile Analysis Using MESSAGE Modeling Approach

Demand profile analysis is very crucial in the evolution of intelligent demand side management and power dispatch planning practices. This is so, because not only a prior knowledge of demand the fluctuations is necessary, but also the sector of the demand causing the fluctuations. In this paper, a detailed demand profile analysis of Nigeria's annual electricity demand is presented using systems optimization approach of IAEA's MESSAGE model. Since the MESSAGE Load evaluation module does not incorporate the evaluation of peak to off-peak demand ratio, an extension of the model is proposed for this evaluation. The simulation results for the services, industrial and residential demand subsectors as well as the total demand were within expected pattern, with the services sector presenting the highest peak to off-peak demand ratio of 2.137.