Estimating Ectopic Beat Probability with Simplified Statistical Models that Account for Experimental Uncertainty

Ectopic beats (EBs) are cellular arrhythmias that can trigger lethal arrhythmias. Simulations using biophysically-detailed cardiac myocyte models can reveal how model parameters influence the probability of these cellular arrhythmias, however such analyses can pose a huge computational burden. Here, we develop a simplified approach in which logistic regression models (LRMs) are used to define a mapping between the parameters of complex cell models and the probability of EBs (P(EB)). As an example, in this study, we build an LRM for P(EB) as a function of diastolic cytosolic Ca2+ concentration ([Ca2+]i), sarcoplasmic reticulum (SR) Ca2+ load, and kinetic parameters of the inward rectifier K+ current (IK1) and ryanodine receptor (RyR). This approach, which we refer to as arrhythmia sensitivity analysis, allows for evaluation of the relationship between these arrhythmic event probabilities and their associated parameters. This LRM is also used to demonstrate how uncertainties in experimentally measured values determine the uncertainty in P(EB). In a study of the role of [Ca2+]SR uncertainty, we show a special property of the uncertainty in P(EB), where with increasing [Ca2+]SR uncertainty, P(EB) uncertainty first increases and then decreases. Lastly, we demonstrate that IK1 suppression, at the level that occurs in heart failure myocytes, increases P(EB). Author summaryAn ectopic beat is an abnormal cellular electrical event which can trigger dangerous arrhythmias in the heart. Complex biophysical models of the cardiac myocyte can be used to reveal how cell properties affect the probability of ectopic beats. However, such analyses can pose a huge computational burden. We develop a simplified approach that enables a highly complex biophysical model to be reduced to a rather simple statistical model from which the functional relationship between myocyte model parameters and the probability of an ectopic beat is determined. We refer to this approach as arrhythmia sensitivity analysis. Given the efficiency of our approach, we also use it to demonstrate how uncertainties in experimentally measured myocyte model parameters determine the uncertainty in ectopic beat probability. We find that, with increasing model parameter uncertainty, the uncertainty in probability of ectopic beat first increases and then decreases. In general, our approach can efficiently analyze the relationship between cardiac myocyte parameters and the probability of ectopic beats and can be used to study how uncertainty of these cardiac myocyte parameters influences the ectopic beat probability.