Divergence between HbA1c and fasting glucose through childhood: implications for diagnosis of impaired fasting glucose (EarlyBird 52)

Objective An HbA1c threshold of ≥6.5% has recently been adopted for the diagnosis of diabetes in adults, and of ≥5.7% to identify adults at risk. Little, however, is known of HbA1c's behaviour or diagnostic value in youth. Our aim was to describe the course of HbA1c during childhood, and its association with fasting glucose. Research Design and Methods HbA1c and glucose were measured every year in a cohort of 326 healthy children (162 boys) from 5 to 15 years. Mixed effects modelling was used to establish the determinants of HbA1c and its development over time. ROC analysis was used to determine the diagnostic value of HbA1c in the 55 individuals who showed impaired fasting glucose (IFG—glucose ≥5.6 mmol/L). Results Glucose rose progressively from 4.3 mmol/L at 5 years to 5.1 mmol/L at 15 years, and although there were positive associations between HbA1c and glucose, from 10 to 13 years, HbA1c fell while glucose continued to rise. IFG developed in 55 children, but HbA1c exceeded 5.7% in only 16 of them. The maximum area under the ROC curve was 0.71 at the age of 14 (p < 0.001), and the sensitivity and specificity were optimal at 50 and 80% respectively, corresponding to HbA1c of 5.4%. Conclusions Although HbA1c retains a positive association with glucose throughout childhood, it is weak, and their trends diverge from 10 years, suggesting that factors other than glycaemia systematically influence the variance of HbA1c in youth. These findings therefore limit the interpretation of HbA1c for the diagnosis of IFG during childhood.