Drought Intensity, Future Expectations, and the Resilience of Climate Beliefs

Abstract Although past literature has suggested experience with the effects of climate change can affect people's belief in climate change, there is limited research on the duration of this outcome. If extreme events only update beliefs in the short term, there is a risk that long term investments and planning are only made in narrow windows around the events. Using a national survey of New Zealand farmers, we explore the effect of drought intensity on future climate expectations and plans for land-use change, focusing on the window of experience farmers use in planning. Results suggest farmers reference a short-term window rather than the historical record. Higher expectations of drought are also positively associated with land-conversion plans, highlighting the importance of beliefs in adaptation and planning behaviour. Climate change planning and adaptation require long term interest and investment. Our results suggest that short-term fluctuations in drought and weather can affect beliefs, so that a few good years might breed resistance to longer term investment.