ПРИНЯТИЕ СТРАТЕГИЧЕСКИХ РЕШЕНИЙ В УСЛОВИЯХ РИСКА И НЕОПРЕДЕЛЕННОСТИ

As a rule, strategic decision-making is associated with a large number of factors to be taken into account, the availability of semi-structured and unstructured data as well as insufficient background information. In these circumstances, in order to evaluate and select strategic initiatives, it seems appropriate to use expert estimates in combination with traditional methods for management accounting and investment analysis. An important aspect of strategic decision-making is simulation of problem situations that are understood as a status of environment in the future. Given that there are different approaches to modeling problem situations and a variety of decision- making methods, the authors suggest a multi-version processing of expert estimates. To perform the necessary calculations, it is recommended to use a special decision support system. The article focuses on developing an approach to make strategic managerial decisions through simulation of problem situations and multi-version processing of expert estimates using proper methods for decision-making and information systems. When modeling problem situations, it is necessary to take into account environmental factors that are essential for decision-making, given that considered factors can be either independent or interdependent. A hierarchy analysis method is discussed as one of the methods for assessing the probabilities of problem situations.