A study design for statistical learning technique to predict radiological progression with an application of idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis using chest CT images

Abstract Background Idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF) is a fatal interstitial lung disease characterized by an unpredictable decline in lung function. Predicting IPF progression from the early changes in lung function tests have known to be a challenge due to acute exacerbation. Although it is unpredictable, the neighboring regions of fibrotic reticulation increase during IPF's progression. With this clinical information, quantitative characteristics of high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) and a statistical learning paradigm, the aim is to build a model to predict IPF progression. Design A paired set of anonymized 193 HRCT images from IPF subjects with 6–12 month intervals were collected retrospectively. The study was conducted in two parts: (1) Part A collects the ground truth in small regions of interest (ROIs) with labels of “expected to progress” or “expected to be stable” at baseline HRCT and develop a statistical learning model to classify voxels in the ROIs. (2) Part B uses the voxel-level classifier from Part A to produce whole-lung level scores of a single-scan total probability's (STP) baseline. Methods Using annotated ROIs from 71 subjects' HRCT scans in Part A, we applied Quantum Particle Swarm Optimization–Random Forest (QPSO-RF) to build the classifier. Then, 122 subjects' HRCT scans were used to test the prediction. Using Spearman rank correlations and survival analyses, we ascertained STP associations with 6–12 month changes in quantitative lung fibrosis and forced vital capacity. Conclusion This study can serve as a reference for collecting ground truth, and developing statistical learning techniques to predict progression in medical imaging.