Physical Frailty Predicts Incident Depressive Symptoms in Elderly People: Prospective Findings From the Obu Study of Health Promotion for the Elderly

Abstract Objective The purpose of this study was to determine whether frailty is an important and independent predictor of incident depressive symptoms in elderly people without depressive symptoms at baseline. Design Fifteen-month prospective study. Setting General community in Japan. Participants A total of 3025 community-dwelling elderly people aged 65 years or over without depressive symptoms at baseline. Measurements The self-rated 15-item Geriatric Depression Scale was used to assess symptoms of depression with a score of 6 or more at baseline and 15-month follow-up. Participants underwent a structural interview designed to obtain demographic factors and frailty status, and completed cognitive testing with the Mini-Mental State Examination and physical performance testing with the Short Physical Performance Battery as potential predictors. Results At a 15-month follow-up survey, 226 participants (7.5%) reported the development of depressive symptoms. We found that frailty and poor self-rated general health (adjusted odds ratio 1.86, 95% confidence interval 1.30–2.66, P P  = .03) after adjusting for demographic factors, self-rated general health, behavior, living arrangements, Mini-Mental State Examination, Short Physical Performance Battery, and Geriatric Depression Scale scores at baseline. Conclusions Our findings suggested that frailty and poor self-rated general health were independent predictors of depressive symptoms in community-dwelling elderly people.