The Observed Change in Interannual Variations of January Minimum Temperature between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000 in South Korea

There is a growing concern about the possible increase in inter-annual variation of minimum temperature during the winter season in Korea. This view is strengthened by frequently reported freezing injury to dormant fruit trees, while warmer winters have prevailed recently. The January minimum temperature record at fourteen weather stations was analyzed for 1951-2000. The results showed no evidence of increasing standard deviation at 3 locations between 1951-1980 and 1971-2000, while the remaining 11 stations showed a trend of decreasing standard deviation for the two periods. An empirical model explaining the spatial variation of the standard deviation was derived by regression analysis of 56 stations' data for 1971-2000. Daily minimum temperature and the site elevation may account for 68% of the observed variations. We applied this model to restore the average standard deviation of the January minimum temperature for 1971-2000, and the result was used to produce gridded minimum temperature data for the recurrence interval of 10 and 30 years at 250m resolution. A digital form of the plant hardiness zone map may be developed from this product for site-specific selection of adapted plant species.