When Paths Diverge: “Errors of Prediction” From Preschool Test Scores to Later Cognitive and Academic Measures

Long-term follow-up information on children who have participated in early childhood special education (ECSE) has seldom been available. In the present study, the cognitive and academic performance of 171 thirteen-year-old graduates of 2 ECSE curricula is examined. Although preschool cognitive measures continued to predict later performance significantly, there were numerous examples of “errors of prediction,” that is, children whose later academic performance was substantially better or worse than predicted on the basis of a regression equation. Six individual and family factors were individually at least moderately associated with outcome status and collectively strongly correlated with status as “improver” or “decreaser”: positive temperament, European American ethnicity, male gender, middle income, initial referral for gross motor concerns, and nonreferral for social concerns.