The prognostic value of serochemical cholestasis parameters in liver cirrhosis

: In a semiprospective study on the prognosis of liver cirrhosis we investigated whether common, selected cholestasis parameters in liver diagnostics are associated with the survival time and the probability of survival and whether they permit prognostic statements. In 93 patients with liver cirrhosis of different aetiology the serum-bilirubin, gamma-GT, AP and AAP were determined for this purpose and applied in the same way as a clinically proven icterus to the survival time of the patients. The mean time of observation was 13.8 years (+/- 1.9 years). In the simple correlation matrix none of the cholestasis parameters correlated with the survival time. There was no difference in the frequency with which deceased and surviving patients suffered from icterus and, with the exception of AAP, there was no different serum concentration of the cholestasis parameters according to univariate analysis. However, icterus in the early phase of the observation time and increased gamma-GT (over 3000 nmol/l.s) in the late phase of observation were associated with a reduced probability of survival. Correspondingly, the serum-bilirubin of deceased patients (only slightly) correlated in the simple linear regression with their survival time. In multivariate analysis gamma-GT proved to be non-redundant for the estimation of the patients' probability of survival.