Towards an analytical model for Swedish election campaigns

The image of Sweden as Europe's most stable de­ mocracy has suffered serious blemishes during the past three years. Not only was the 44 year tradition of Social Democratic predominance ended, but the coalition non-socialist government lasted only two years before it collapsed due to internal dissention over the fate of Sweden's nuclear energy program. During the spring of 1979, the three nonsocialist parties continued their political bickering. The re­ sults of the '79 election hardly clarified the si­ tuation. Despite the success of the 3 non-socialist parties in reconstituting their coalition govern­ ment, the stability of the coalition is questionable. The instability of the parliamentary situation lea­ ves open the possibility of new coalitions in the early eighties. Scholars were quick to point out after the '76 election that the actual shifts in electoral support for the parties, and particularly between the two blocks, were quite small. The precarious balance that had favored the Social Democrats tipped slightly and the result was the Fâlldin govern­ ment. However two major studies of the '76 elec­ tion illustrated that important changes had oc­ curred in Swedish politics. Olof Petersson sum­ marized his findings in the following manner: