Serum soluble CD163 predicts risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population

BACKGROUND: Activation of adipose tissue macrophages with concomitant low-grade inflammation is believed to play a central role in the development of type 2 diabetes. We tested whether a new macrophage-derived biomarker, soluble CD163 (sCD163), identifies at-risk individuals before overt disease has developed. METHODS: A prospective cohort study of 8849 study participants from the general population, the Copenhagen City Heart Study, was followed for 18 years for incidence of type 2 diabetes. Risk of disease was calculated according to age- and sex-adjusted percentile categories of serum sCD163 concentrations: 0%–33%, 34%–66%, 67%–90%, 91%–95%, and 96%–100%. RESULTS: A total of 568 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The cumulative incidence increased with increasing baseline sCD163 (trend P 70 years of age, serum sCD163 concentrations in the top 5% group predicted an absolute 10-year risk of type 2 diabetes of 29% and 36% vs 7% and 8% in the lowest percentile group. Equivalent values in women were 19% and 24% vs 4% and 5%. CONCLUSIONS: Increased concentrations of sCD163 predict increased risk of type 2 diabetes in the general population and may be useful for identification of high-risk overweight individuals.