Climate Change, Societal Stability, and the SID Project

Beginning in the last third of the 20th century, a number of scholars have argued that adverse human effects on the environment pose an important threat to human security. Indeed, several have issued alarming claims about the potential for violent conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999: 3,4; Schwartz 2003: 2,3 15; Bachler 1999). With increasing scientific evidence of climate change and growing public awareness of the problem, concerns about its security implications reached a new level after the turn of the 21st century. Two recent Nobel Peace Prizes (2004, 2007) have been awarded for work related to environmental change and peace. A number of government-sponsored reports about the effects of climate change on resource scarcity, the main link between climate change and conflict, have painted a troubling picture of the future (BMU 2002; Stern 2006; IPCC 2007; WBGU 2007). Various observers have attributed armed conflicts in Rwanda, Kenya, Assam, Chiapas, and Sudan to the effects of climate change. Moreover, several reputable groups have produced thoughtful and in-depth reports assessing the potential security threats of climate change (Campbell 2007; CNA 2007).