Techno-economic modelling to strategize energy exports in the Central Asian Caspian region

Abstract This paper studies the concept of energy security from export-oriented countries’ point of view. It aims to test the effects of long-term energy export strategies in the Central Asian Caspian (CAC) region, by exploring the trade-offs between a "risk" indicator and some key variables of the energy system such as the total cost, the quantities exported, and the corresponding revenues. Risk reduction goals are combined with securing a minimum level of revenues from the hydrocarbon exports goals. It is also attempted to provide a definition and a quantification of a risk indicator on the basis of four components. The analysis makes use of a techno-economic energy system model to quantitatively evaluate the response of the energy sector to energy security risks, and its sensitivity to different export strategies.