Primary neck management among patients with cancer of the oral cavity without clinical nodal metastases: A decision and sensitivity analysis.

Background A standardized neck management strategy for oral cancer patients without clinical nodal metastases remains to be established. Consequently, a decision and sensitivity analysis of two neck management protocols, involving either prophylactic neck dissection or careful observation, was conducted using the Oral Cancer Registry of Kyushu, Japan. Methods We calculated probabilities of subclinical nodal metastases and 5-year survival using the registry data. A two-way sensitive analysis was conducted using the probabilities and parameters of the complete nodal metastasis resection rate (x) and a utility rating that describes the health state induced by dissection (y) compared with the neck condition in a careful-observation group. Results We solved the threshold curve for y and x for the expected utility between the two groups. The results showed that prophylactic neck dissection must guarantee a complete resection of subclinical nodal metastases with no disadvantage to health state to be evaluated as equally satisfactory as careful observation. Conclusions Careful observation involving standardized systematic preoperative and postoperative screening of the neck seems preferable to prophylactic neck dissection for oral cancer patients without subclinical nodal metastases. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Head Neck 24: 582–590, 2002