The effects of air pollution on cardiovascular diseases: lag structures

OBJECTIVE: To assess the lag structure between air pollution exposure and elderly cardiovascular diseases hospital admissions, by gender. METHODS: Health data of people aged 64 years or older was stratified by gender in Sao Paulo city, Southeastern Brazil, from 1996 to 2001. Daily levels of air pollutants (CO, PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2) , minimum temperature, and relative humidity were also analyzed. It were fitted generalized additive Poisson regressions and used constrained distributed lag models adjusted for long time trend, weekdays, weather and holidays to assess the lagged effects of air pollutants on hospital admissions up to 20 days after exposure. RESULTS: Interquartile range increases in PM10 (26.21 mug/m³) and SO2 (10.73 mug/m³) were associated with 3.17% (95% CI: 2.09-4.25) increase in congestive heart failure and 0.89% (95% CI: 0.18-1.61) increase in total cardiovascular diseases at lag 0, respectively. Effects were higher among female group for most of the analyzed outcomes. Effects of air pollutants for different outcomes and gender groups were predominately acute and some "harvesting" were found. CONLUSIONS: The results show that cardiovascular diseases in Sao Paulo are strongly affected by air pollution.