Climate impacts and adaptation options in agriculture: what we know and what we don’t know

Since publication of the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change in 2006 and the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report in 2007 it is clear that anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions are the main cause for recently observed climate change, and that early andboldmitigationmeasureswill eventually be much cheaper than later adaptation to potentially drastic climate impacts. The agricultural sector is directly affected by changes in temperature, precipitation, and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere, but it is also contributing about one third to total greenhouse gas emissions, mainly through nitrogen fertilization, livestock and rice production, land use change and deforestation. Agriculture currently accounts for 5% of world economic output, employs 22% of the global population, and occupies 40% of the land area. In the developing countries, 70% of people live in rural areas, where agriculture is the largest supporter of livelihood and the economy is dominated by the agricultural sector. Agriculture accounts for 40% of GDP in Africa and 28% in South Asia. A large share of the world’s poor population lives in arid or semi-arid regions, which are already characterized by highly volatile climate conditions. Under conditions of climate change, a world-wide increase in climate variability and extreme weaACHTUNGTRENNUNGther events is very likely. The connections between agricultural development and climate change reveal some fundamental issues of global justice. The industrialised countries, mostly located inmedium to high latitudes, are responsible for the major share of accumulated GHG emissions, they are economically less dependent on agriculture, they will be less affectedby climate impacts, and theyhave onaverage ahigher adaptive capacity. Most developing countries are located in the lower latitudes, they are dependent on agriculture, they will be strongly affected by climate impacts, and they have lower (or non-existent) adaptive capacity. Creating more options for climate change adaptation and improving the adaptive capacity in the agricultural sector will be crucial for improving food security and preventing an increase in global inequality in living standards in the future. However, in the developing world this is often prevented by the lack of information, financial resources and good governance.